India beacon of hope in gloomy outlook for emerging economies

India beacon of hope in gloomy outlook for emerging economies

While the global economy as a whole continues to struggle under the weight of falling oil prices and market uncertainties, World Bank singles out India as a bright spot that adds some cheer.Once the rising stars of the global economy, the BRICS are a shadow of their former stature. Russia and Brazil are set to continue in recession while China is expected to have further slowdown in the economy in 2016. India is the only exception.The World Bank projected that India will grow at a robust 7.8 per cent in 2016-17 and 7.9 per cent in the next two years based on its latest 'Global Economic Prospect', which described India as a "bright spot". While many analysts are focused on the two horse race of India and China - the impact of these slow downs have far more significant impact especially in poverty alleviation.Spillovers from major emerging markets will constrain growth in developing countries and pose a threat to hard-won gains in raising people out of poverty, the report warns.Undoubtedly, the Indian economy largely catering to domestic demand growth and lower oil prices have helped its cause and this report from the World Bank will reaffirm the country's position as a “safer haven” for foreign and domestic investors.Similarly, Indian companies that are seeking to establish a global footprint will find it easier to secure credit at lower interest rates in foreign markets. During economic uncertainty, the Indian investment will be welcome in almost all parts of the world but Indian companies need to hedge their bets carefully. And, Africa should definitely be on the radar of Indian investors.Africa remains buoyant with both North Africa and Sub Saharan Africa expected to see their economies grow considerably. Even South Africa with its current political and economic challenges will be able to post a modest higher rate of growth of 1.4 per cent in 2016 from 1.3 per cent in 2015. North Africa is expected to grow by 5.1 per cent compared to 2.5 per cent last year while Sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 3.4 per cent to 4.2 per cent.Despite the Indian success story, the global outlook remains gloomy.World Bank Group Vice-President and Chief Economist Kaushik Basu strikes a note of caution: “There is greater divergence in performance among emerging economies. Compared to six months ago, risks have increased, particularly those associated with the possibility of a disorderly slowdown in a major emerging economy.“A combination of fiscal and central bank policies can be helpful in mitigating these risks and supporting growth.”

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